The US has increased its military aid to Ukraine to US$650 million. So what can the West do? The issue with sanctionsīritain and the US continue to supply military equipment, despite Russian threats. It would be left alone in its hour of need. The West’s limited optionsĪs in the Cold War, peacekeeping depends on the credibility of effective deterrence – though Ukraine, as a non-NATO member, cannot count on military assistance. These could include a naval blockade in the Black Sea or a series of hacker attacks. Of course, hybrid actions would constitute fewer risks in terms of response from the West. In the spring at least, this would pose significant logistical problems.Īt the same time – as with his war in Georgia in 2008 – Putin could launch a 'relief' attack on Kyiv from the north, but without taking the city. Its right flank would probably have to stretch as far as the Dnieper. He could follow it, under 'provocation', with a limited war to secure a land corridor along the Sea of Azov to Crimea. In the worst case scenario, Putin could formally annex the two 'people's republics' of Donetsk and Luhansk (which he already effectively controls). Of course, these troops are far from sufficient for the conquest and occupation of a nation of 52 million and the defeat of an army of 215,000 (albeit one worse equipped than its Russian counterpart). Putin has gathered troops on the borders of Ukraine and in Crimea his offensive options are substantial, though not limitless Since last spring, he has gathered about 125,000 troops on the eastern and south-eastern borders of Ukraine and in Crimea, accompanied by heavy military equipment, and is organising military exercises in southern Belarus. Putin, meanwhile, keeps all his options open. Europeans have their own national concerns to worry about, and the EU is barely taken seriously as a strategic power. He abandoned his allies and sees only China as a strategic rival. Biden fled Afghanistan in September, like Trump in Syria before him. The West is currently showing sufficient weakness for Putin to flex his muscles. His method is destabilisation of neighbouring states, as is happening in Belarus and Kazakhstan. The goal: to be seen as a world power again on an equal footing with the great Western powers, even though Russia is a demographically shrinking country living purely on commodity exports, with a GDP the size of Spain. He intends to restore that Empire by expanding the Russian sphere of influence. Putin (and, more broadly, the Kremlin) suffers from phantom pain: the Soviet Empire, which perished 30 years ago. The two sides should, instead, lower tensions and address together several longstanding issues at the heart of current international instability Putin and the ghost of Empire Albrecht Rothacher argues that Putin’s power play over Ukraine, while driven by the West’s current weakness, serves neither Russia nor the West.
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